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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."